The majority of the country has elected Donald Trump as our 47th President. As a fierce independent, this is the second greatest political disappointment of my life (January 6th was my first). The only major remaining federal voter question is House control.

In review, it appears in the best interest of our country that this presidential election was not close. Trump raised unsubstantiated concerns during election day about “massive cheating” in Philadelphia. (Likely, part of an overall plan to challenge election results if the outcome was not favorable to him.) His allegations were contested by local officials.

William Kristol in his Bulwark post about this election “The Spirit of Horace” eloquently described the election results. He shared that even in a democracy the majority can be wrong. He reminds us that respecting a decision of the people does not mean surrendering one’s judgement to them.

So, what would make the voting majority wrong in this election, leaving out Trump’s personal shortcomings? His primary campaign forum included improving the economy, lowering inflation, immigration control (including mass deportations and completing a border wall), tax cuts (including removal of federal income tax on tips and Social Security) and stricter penalties for law breakers (these stricter penalties will apparently not apply to him). He also shared that he could end the Ukraine war with a phone call, once in office.

Not meeting his campaign promises, with regard to those who voted for him, would indicate they voted incorrectly as his promises were likely the reasons they voted for him. Looking at what is in the best interest of the country may somewhat complicate this analysis. For example, tax cuts are in these voters’ best personal interest but are they in the best interest of the country?

 

2024 Current Facts for Future Comparison

GDP Growth Percentage: 2.8%

Unemployment Rate: 4.1%

Inflation Rate: 2.4%

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage: 6.88%

S&P 500: 5,998

Deportations: By June/2024 177,000 (6-month total)

Border Wall: Total border 1,954 miles, 706 miles now have primary barriers

Tax on Tips: Currently yes, at ordinary federal income tax rates

Tax on Social Security: Currently yes, up to 85% of total at ordinary federal income tax rates

Individual Income Tax Rates: 7 Brackets 10% to 37%

Corporation Income Tax Rate: Flat 21%

New Tariffs: Plans to add new tariffs from an overall 10% to 100% on cars manufactured outside the U.S.

Crime Rates: Overall, down in 2024

Ukraine War: Intensifying with foreign troop additions fighting for Russia

Current Federal Debt: 35T (my emphasis & opinion – a real problem at some point)

 

It will be interesting so see the changes enacted by the new Trump Administration. If significant tariffs are implemented, as proposed, their success will be judged not only by successful enactment but without a corresponding increase in U.S. inflation and without retaliation by our trading partners. (A significant amount of our GDP is exported.)

We will see on January 21st, 2025, if Trump is able to keep his first promise to end the Ukraine war by phone call in a manner favorable to Ukrainians. Some of the facts/statistics above will be helpful in evaluating Trump’s future successes or failures as our 47th President.